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Correct Predictions: In The Fourth Quarter, Jobless Rate Went Down By 0.2%

In March, economists were expecting to see a decrease in Jobless Rate. They were looking forward to a hike of around 5000 after three months of slight job growth. As a matter of fact, there was a prediction that there would be a jobless rate of 7.3%. This would match the maximum level in over 3 years.

But in the month of March, employment went up to 41,000 (+0.2%) – the highest number in five months. Such a strong number lower down the unemployment rate by 0.2% making it 7.1%.

At the first quarter, there were 33,000 jobs. In the fourth quarter, the jobless rate went down by 0.2%.

Where Did The Gains Take Place?

Alberta, Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan were posted with payroll gains. At the same time, employment went down in Prince Edward Island. There was an oil crisis in Alberta where 19,000 new jobs were recorded. This brought down the unemployment rate by 0.8%. But, the gross jobless rate was 7.1% which has been quite high since last year.

British Columbia (BC) stands as the front-runner. It went through the most speedy payroll growth and the strongest economy. The gains rose up to 72,000 in BC, up 3.2%. The jobless rate was however not affected and stood at 6.5%.

During last year, Ontario became the second strongest province. It had a job growth rate of 1.2% and an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

The boost was determined by the rise in retail and wholesale businesses. in spite of the increase in jobs, the complete amount of hours worked in March went down by 0.7% – a fall that started early last year.

Which Field of Work Saw the Rise in New Jobs?

The whole hike in employment in March took place in the private sector. In Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Alberta, manufacturing was an area of weakness as it recorded reduction by 3200 jobs.

However, the crisis in the oil sector is still going on. Payroll will get hit with the second-round effects through the middle of the year. This is because the oil production and business investment in that area are constantly going down.

The Canadian economy is growing flawlessly. In addition, it will most definitely grow at just below 2% this year while keeping the Bank of Canada on a tangent. However, in the United States, growth rates will most likely go over 2% with the Fed.

Is Unemployment Going To Be Down In 2019?

There were about 27,000 new jobs created in May. Statistics Canada indicate this follows a strong rise in employment in April.

“The unemployment figure in the month of May was the lowest since comparable data was made available in 1976,” the agency says. Job statistic grew by 453,000 compared with the same month a year ago.

The unemployment number fell to 5.4 per cent compared with 5.7 per cent in the month of April as the number of unemployed workers looking for work fell sharply.

Economists had projected the addition of 8,000 jobs for the month and an unemployment figure of 5.7 per cent, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.

The better-than-expected surge in the number of jobs follows a record 106,500 jobs that were created in April.

The swell in jobs was constituted entirely of full-time employment as there was no change in the number of part-time jobs.

All year round hourly wage growth for every employee, a key indicator observe by the Bank of Canada ahead of its interest-rate decisions, 2.8 per cent in the month of May, up from 2.5 per cent in the month of April.

Statistics Canada also indicates employment rose in British Columbia, as well as in Nova Scotia, Ontario, and New Brunswick. A drop was seen in Prince Edward Island as well as in Newfoundland and Labrador, while there was little change in the other parts of the country.

In B.C., employment increased by 17,000 in the month of May, especially thanks to increases in “part-time work among working-aged people.”